Figure 1.

Rates of projected growth of carbon emissions over the period 1975 to 2050 grouped by study and date of publication: ( * ) base case or averabe cases for feasibility-type studies, ( ) base cae or most likely values for study using the IEA/ORAU model, and ( ) base case, average, or most likely values for other studies. Vertical lines represent uncertainty estimates (e.g,, either high or low scenarios, or 5th and 95th percentile bounds, were applicable).

Reference numbers are as follows: 1. Keeling and Bacastow (1977); 2. Perry and Lansberg (1977); 3. Siegenthaler and Oeschger (1978); 4. Rotty (1979); 5. Niehaus and Williams (1979); 6. Nordhaus (1979); 7. JASON (1979); 8. Colombo and Bernadini (1979); 9. Rotty and Marland (1980); 10. Bacastow and Keeling (1981); 11. Sundquist and Plummer (1981); 12. Haefele (1981); 13. Lovins et al. (1981); 14. Edmonds and Reilly (1983); 15. Nordhaus and Yohe (1983); 16. Rose et al. (1983); 17. Seidel and Keyes (1983); 18. Edmonds et al. (1984); 19. Reister (1984a); 20. Reister (1984b); 21. Manne (1984); 22. Williams et al. (1984); 23 Edmonds et al. (1985); 24. Chandler (1985); and 25. Rogner (1985).