TABLE 14. COMPARISON OF PARAMETER RANKINGS, MONTE CARLO (UNCERTAINTY RANK) VERSUS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS (1% VARIABILITY RANK)

(Relative Contribution to the Variability of Model Predictions)

	      Year 2000					Year 2025
      Uncertainty    1% Variability		Uncertainty	1% Variability
PARM    Rank             Rank		  PARM	  Rank		     Rank
32 1 (.21) 1 (.19) 32 1 (.27) 2 (.20) 12 2 (.17) 5 (.08) 12 2 (.17) 4 (.08) 31 3 (.17) 3 (.15) 9 3 (.14) 1 (.31) 9 4 (.07) 2 (.19) 31 4 (.12) 5 (.06) 2 5 (.04) 0 11 5 (.02) 8 (.02) 62 6 (.03) 0 62 6 (.02) 12 (.01) 7 7 (.02) 4 (.13) 7 7 (.02) 6 (.06) 11 8 (.02) 8 (.03) 2 8 (.01) 0 8 9 (.01) 6 (.04) 60 9 (.01) 0 61 10 (.01) 0 8 10 (.01) 10 (.01) 1 0 7 (.04) 14 0 3 (.11) 79 0 9 (.02) 26 0 7 (.06) 3 0 10 (.01) 1 0 9 (.02) Year 2050 Year 2075 Uncertainty 1% Variability Uncertainty 1% Variability PARM Rank Rank PARM Rank Rank
32 1 (.23) 2 (.23) 32 1 (.20) 2 (.29) 12 2 (.19) 3 (.10) 12 2 (.16) 3 (.10) 31 3 (.14) 4 (.08) 31 3 (.15) 4 (.06) 9 4 (.12) 1 (.36) 9 4 (.08) 1 (.04) 62 5 (.02) 0 62 5 (.04) 11 (.01) 11 6 (.02) 8 (.02) 60 6 (.02) 0 7 7 (.02) 6 (.05) 2 7 (.02) 0 2 8 (.01) 0 7 8 (.01) 5 (.04) 60 9 (.01) 0 11 9 (.01) 7 (.02) 4 10 (.01) 0 59 10 (.01) 0 15 0 5 (.05) 4 11 (.01) 0 27 0 7 (.04) 16 0 6 (.02) 77 0 9 (.01) 77 0 8 (.02) 1 0 10 (.01) 28 0 9 (.01) 22 0 10 (.01)