Disclaimer statement from PNL
May 1994
The adoption of assumptions regarding advanced energy technologies were shown to have a profound effect on the future rate of anthropogenic climate change. The cumulative effect of the five sets of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissio ns from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv, the point at which atmospheric concentrations are double those that existed in the middle of the eighteenth century.
This work has led us to the conclusion that differences in the long term results obtained by "top-down" and "bottom-up" modelers can be attributed largely to differences in assumptions. Methodology plays a less important role in explaining differences. The single most important question is whether or not the advanced energy supply technologies described in Cases 2 through 6 will be available in the quantities and at the costs assumed in this study.
While all energy technologies introduced in Cases 2 through 6 play roles in reducing future fossil fuel CO2 emissions, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology plays a critical role. If biomass energy can be made available at $2.4 0/GJ or less in quantities sufficient to make it the core energy supply technology in the middle of the next century, then emissions can be cut dramatically relative to Case 1. The problem of emissions reduction becomes one of technology development and d eployment in this case, and not one of fiscal and regulatory intervention.
Because SO2 has a cooling effect on the atmosphere, policies which reduce fossil fuel use are not as effective as a simple greenhouse calculation might imply. The proper treatment of SO2 is therefore an important consideration in the analysis of climate c onsequences of technology development and deployment.
(b) Personal communication. 1994.
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Data Errors, Corrections and Disclaimer
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VI. REFERENCES
Edmonds, J. and Barns, D.W. 1990. Estimating the Marginal Cost of
Reducing Global Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: PNL-SA-18361, Pacific
Northwest Laboratory, Richland, Washington.
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