April, 1995
AIM Project Team
Contact addresses
Tsuneyuki Morita
Global Warming Response Team,
National Institute for Environmental Studies,
16-2 Onogawa,
Tsukuba 305,
JAPAN.
Telephone: +81-298-51-6111.
Telex: +81-298-58-2645.
and
Yuzuru Matsuoka
Faculty of Engineering,
Nagoya University
Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku,
Nagoya 464-01,
JAPAN
Telephone: +81-52-789-3347.
Telex: +81-52-789-3837.
INTRODUCTION
This file presents the major results, input assumptions model structure and relevant references for the research conducted so far using the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). Its format allows this information to be easily updated as new results are produced .
The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model is being developed to allow assessment of policy options for stabilizing global climate, particularly in the Asian-Pacific region. AIM is an integrated 'top-down, bottom-up' model with regional models and a global model.
It comprises three main models - the AIM/emission model for predicting greenhouse gas emissions, the AIM/climate model for estimating global and regional climate change, and the AIM/impact model for estimating the impacts of global warming.
The AIM/emission model is made up of Asian-Pacific country models and a World model that ensures interactions between these regional models are consistent. The AIM/climate model is designed to link other established models for calculating global and regional climate change. The AIM/impact model is designed to calculate the primary impacts on water supply, agricultural production, wood supplies, human health, etc., and then make predictions of higher-order impacts on the regional economy.
The relationships between these models are shown in the following figure.
Item: Global and Asian-Pacific CO2 Emissions
Global fossil fuel CO2: 2025: 9.93 billion tonnes
2100: 19.9 billion tonnes
Asian-Pacific region's share of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions:
2025: 43%
2100: 51%
Emission intensity in 2025: see attached figure
Assumes IPCC (IS92a) scenarios.
Population at 2100: 11.3 billion
Economic growth: 1990-2100: 2.3%
Technology: Endogenous (determined by end-use models)
Energy prices: Endogenous
The modified Edmonds-Reilly model
linked to bottom-up end-use models.
Item: Global CO2 Emissions
Global fossil fuel CO2
2025: 11.4 billion tonnes
2100: 28.0 billion tonnes
Assumes EMF 14 (modified IS92a Scenario)
Economic growth: 1990-2100: 2.63%
2000-2025: 2.84%
2025- : 2.27%-0.9%
Technology: Endogenous (given by AEEI)
The modified Edmonds-Reilly model
linked to bottom-up end-use models.
Proceedings of Energy Modeling Forum 14 - Meeting #2, Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, December 1-2, 1994.
Item: CO2 Emissions in Japan
Population growth: 1990-2000: 0.30%
2000-2010: 0.23%
Economic growth: 1990-2000: 3.5%
2000-2010: 2.5%
Based on the above assumptions, various scenarios were prepared, for things such as industrial production, expansion of average home area and office floor space, and travel demands.
A Bottom-up Energy-technology Model comprised of 3 linked modules; and energy service estimate module, and energy efficiency estimate module and a technology selection module. Energy demand is calculated by multiplying the Energy Service (calculated by the energy service sub-module) by an energy efficiency factor. This factor is calculated by the energy efficiency sub-module, and is the product of assumptions made about the introduction of new technologies for energy conservation as influenced by energy prices. The technology selection sub-module decides which technologies will be introduced.
Item: CO2 Emissions in China
Preliminary results:
Population growth: 1990-2000: 1.2%
2000-2010: 0.7%
Economic growth: 1990-2000: 8.0%
2000-2010: 7.0%
Based on the above assumptions, various scenarios were prepared, for things such as industrial production, expansion of average home area and office floor space, and travel demands.
A Bottom-up Energy-technology Model comprised of 3 linked modules; and energy service estimate module, and energy efficiency estimate module and a technology selection module. Energy demand is calculated by multiplying the Energy Service (calculated by the energy service sub-module) by an energy efficiency factor. This factor is calculated by the energy efficiency sub-module, and is the product of assumptions made about the introduction of new technologies for energy conservation as influenced by energy prices. The technology selection sub-module decides which technologies will be introduced.
Item: CO2 Emissions in Korea
Preliminary results:
Population growth: 1990-2000: 0.7%
2000-2010: 0.6%
Economic growth: 1990-2000: 6.6%
2000-2010: 5.5%
Based on the above assumptions, various scenarios were prepared, for things such as industrial production, expansion of average home area and office floor space, and travel demands.
A Bottom-up Energy-technology Model comprised of 3 linked modules; and energy service estimate module, and energy efficiency estimate module and a technology selection module. Energy demand is calculated by multiplying the Energy Service (calculated by the energy service sub-module) by an energy efficiency factor. This factor is calculated by the energy efficiency sub-module, and is the product of assumptions made about the introduction of new technologies for energy conservation as influenced by energy prices. The technology selection sub-module decides which technologies will be introduced.
Item: CO2 Flux from Tropical Deforestation
The total carbon dioxide flux from tropical deforestation in three regions (Latin America, Africa and Asia) between 1980 and 2100 was estimated fro three population scenarios as 61.1 billion tC, 91.6 billion tC and 135.5 billion tC.
Population and population density are the major factors in deforestation.
Three fertility scenarios are assumed - the low, medium and high scenarios of the 1992 United Nations 'Long-range World Population Projections'.
Only two land uses are assumed from converted forest - permanent/fallow cultivation, and agricultural land. The rate of permanent conversion for forests is 50% in Asia, 30% in Africa and 65% in Latin America.
Forest area percentage: see attached figure.
Simple estimation model of forest loss linked tot he AIM population module.
Item: Global SO2 Emissions and Deposition
1990: 68.5 TgS/yr
2025: 105.9 TgS/yr
2100: 453.9 Tgs/yr
Distribution of SO2 emissions - attached
Distribution of SO2 deposition - attached
Assume IPCC (IS92) scenarios for population and economic growth
Previous and ongoing policies to reduce SO2 emissions, such as the Helsinki' Protocol and the US Clear Air Act, will be implemented.
Current wind patterns and other climatic characteristics will continue.
Emission Model: the modified Edmonds-Reilly model linked to a bottom-up end-use models.
Chemical Transport Model: 3-dimensional differential model developed by Matsuoka and Tsujimoto.
Item: SO2 Emissions in China
SO2 emissions in China
1990: 16.9 TgS/yr
2025: 57.8 TgS/yr
2100: 113.9 Tgs/yr
Spatial distribution - attached.
Assume IPCC (IS92a) scenarios
Population: 1.72 billion at 2025.
Economic Growth Rate: 5.3% (1990-2025)
No special countermeasures to reduce SO2 emissions other than the introduction of low sulfur coal.
The current mechanism determining internal migration patterns will continue.
Emission Model: the modified Edmonds-Reilly model linked to a bottom-up end-use models.
Migration model: a gravity-type model focusing on population.
To be published.
Item: Desulfurization in the Asian-Pacific region
For the 'Business as Usual' case, the optimal annual investment pattern peaks in 1994 at US$400 million. China's optimal investment path peaks in 2016 at US$1.3 billion per annum.
If policies are to be introduced to reduce sulfur emissions to the current Japanese per capita level during the next 15 years, the optimal pattern for annual investment in emission desulfurization technology by Korea reaches a peak of US$400 million in 1996. For China, the annual investment peaks in 1996 at US$600 million.
Economic Growth
Korea: 1990-1999: 4.37%
;2000- : 4.16%
China: 1990-1999 : 4.55%
2000- : 4.35%
AEEI: China and Korea: each 0.5%.
Population Growth:
Korea: 1990-1999: 0.7%
2000- : 0.6%
China: 1990-1999 : 1.2%
2000- : 0.7%
The dynamic optimization model, 'ETA-MACRO', was modified in incorporate an environmental investment mechanism, a pollution damage function, as well as an SO2 emission model and then linked tot he AIM technology selection module.
To be published.
Item: World Population
Relationship between population increase and economic growth
Assumes [Delta][Total fertility rate]
= -[alpha] ln [per capita GDP]
182 country - region models
using the cohort component method.
Item: Climate Change
Global temperature increases from 1990 by between 0.9 and 1.8°C at 2050 and by 1.0 and 4.5°C at 2100. This range is wider than the 1992 IPCC prediction and slightly higher than the 1993 prediction.
See the attached figure.
IS92a, b, e were used for scenarios of CO2 emissions from land use changes, while IS92a was used for other gases.
[Delta]T2xCO2 = 2.5°C
The 'Business as Usual' scenario assumed that no effort would be made to restrict carbon emissions. Post-1985 projections from various models predict that carbon emissions would range between 5.5 - 35.9 billion tC at 2050 and 1.2 - 58 billion at 2100.
This world climate model uses original linkages to join other established models. It comprises the revised AMAC model for atmospheric composition, the IPCC radiative forcing model, a box-diffusion ocean uptake model, the Rashof feedback model and a model for regional scenarios of climate change based on GCM outputs.
Item: Global Carbon Cycle
The CO2 sink into terrestrial vegetation caused by CO2 fertilization is estimated to be 0.9 GT of carbon for the year 1990.
1990 Net Ecosystem Productivity (Net Primary Productivity minus the flux into the atmosphere): see attached figure.
1990 carbon pools are in a steady state (net bioflux=0), but the emitted CO2 raises the Net Primary Production of every land grid-cell. Carbon is then either released back into the atmosphere or joins the carbon pool. the main factors limiting fertilization are altitude, species, and soil moisture.
The Terrestrial Carbon cycle Model (TCCP) geographically evaluated the terrestrial CO2 absorption and storage in response to fossil fuel related emissions. It is a global carbon cycle model with an emphasis on the terrestrial component.
Carbon dioxide enters the land grid-cells as Net Primary Productivity, modified by the relative increase plant growth due to elevated atmospheric dioxide concentrations (CO2 fertilization).
Fertilization is expressed in the core formula for NPP, which is based on the assumption that a relative change in atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to a relative change in NPP that is in proportion to the former:
Item: Water Resources
Parts of India, China and Japan could experience much higher flood levels, while large parts of the region also forecast to have much drier periods. An increased incidence of both droughts and floods is anticipated for some areas.
The watersheds and low flow discharge: see the attached figures.
Precipitation, temperature and soil humidity data from the outputs of GCM experiments (GFDL Q-flux) based on future CO2 level twice that of the pre-Industrial Revolution level.
A rainfall-runoff process submodel was developed as one of the basic submodules of the AIM/Impact model. It consists of water balance and water transport components, and creates gridded high resolution datasets of surface runoff, soil moisture, evapotransportation and river discharge.
Item: Impact on Natural Ecosystems
Boreal conifer forests and larch taiga in northern China are predicted to be significantly influenced.
Tibetan and Himalayan tundra are also influenced
Evergreen-deciduous area in southeast China, drought deciduous forests in India, the Indo-China peninsula and northern Australia are adversely affected.
Spatial distribution of impacts: see the attached figure.
The results of GFDL-R30 GCM experiments.
Specific ecomatching module that changes the vegetation type determined with several climatic parameters which determine the vegetation habitat.
Item: Impact on Malaria
The area in which malaria will become endemic will increase by 6-20%. Parts of Australia, China, South-East Asia, India, Africa and north, central and south America will have an increased risk of malaria infection.
Relative reproduction rate: see the attached figure.
Adaptability of Anopheles mosquito to basic eco-parameters.
Temperature variability based on GCM experiments GFDL-R30, CCC, GISS, OSU, UKMET, and GFDL-Qflux.
Rate of transfer of the disease
Coupling a climate inset model and a Plasmodium sporogony model based on several GCM experiments.
Item: Agricultural Production
Changes in major agricultural crop yields between 1990 and 2100; for example,
rice: +3.8 to +4.5 %; winter wheat: -16.5 to -17.2 %; spring wheat: -8.9 to -9.8 %; temperate maize: -6.3 to -9.4 %; temperate sorghum: -20.2 to -28.1 %; white potato: -8.6 to -9.9 %.
Change of potential productivity of spring wheat: see the attached fiure.
Assumes IPCC (IS92a) scenarios while regional climate change patterns are estimated by CCC GCM experiments.
Climate Crop Model based on Food and Agriculture Organization Crop Suitability Method.
To be published.
