A1
comparison |
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|
SRES Regions |
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
Downscaled
Projection A1/B1 POP Data (in persons) |
|
|
OECD90 |
863453974 |
918968054 |
965005526 |
1006316119 |
1042992577 |
1069301884 |
1080733216 |
1084225163 |
1088572318 |
1098121708 |
1107678467 |
1109469483 |
ASIA |
2807031703 |
3260398000 |
3619833700 |
3936089297 |
4147406111 |
4238300605 |
4219310232 |
4084117228 |
3866642275 |
3588667059 |
3258134180 |
2881701986 |
REF |
411791162 |
418707700 |
427163520 |
433378144 |
434860169 |
432834074 |
422733126 |
408524068 |
392058371 |
374370349 |
357458767 |
338743089 |
ALM |
1199640513 |
1518595120 |
1874839801 |
2239794728 |
2556500496 |
2789505189 |
2979402783 |
3088768436 |
3114851291 |
3063652348 |
2933683122 |
2725573426 |
TOTAL |
5281917353 |
6116668874 |
6886842547 |
7615578288 |
8181759353 |
8529941752 |
8702179357 |
8665634895 |
8462124255 |
8124811464 |
7656954537 |
7055487984 |
SRES
A1B-AIM Marker Scenario Data(in millions) |
|
|
OECD90 |
859 |
919 |
960 |
1002 |
1043 |
1062 |
1081 |
1086 |
1091 |
1097 |
1103 |
1110 |
ASIA |
2798 |
3261 |
3556 |
3851 |
4147 |
4183 |
4220 |
4016 |
3822 |
3541 |
3194 |
2882 |
REF |
413 |
419 |
424 |
430 |
435 |
429 |
423 |
406 |
391 |
374 |
356 |
339 |
ALM |
1192 |
1519 |
1865 |
2211 |
2557 |
2761 |
2980 |
3024 |
3067 |
3013 |
2866 |
2727 |
World |
5262 |
6117 |
6805 |
7493 |
8182 |
8439 |
8704 |
8538 |
8375 |
8030 |
7528 |
7056 |
% Difference |
|
|
OECD90 |
0.52 |
0.00 |
0.52 |
0.43 |
0.00 |
0.69 |
-0.02 |
-0.16 |
-0.22 |
0.10 |
0.42 |
-0.05 |
ASIA |
0.32 |
-0.02 |
1.80 |
2.21 |
0.01 |
1.32 |
-0.02 |
1.70 |
1.17 |
1.35 |
2.01 |
-0.01 |
REF |
-0.29 |
-0.07 |
0.75 |
0.79 |
-0.03 |
0.89 |
-0.06 |
0.62 |
0.27 |
0.10 |
0.41 |
-0.08 |
ALM |
0.64 |
-0.03 |
0.53 |
1.30 |
-0.02 |
1.03 |
-0.02 |
2.14 |
1.56 |
1.68 |
2.36 |
-0.05 |
TOTAL |
0.38 |
-0.01 |
1.20 |
1.64 |
0.00 |
1.08 |
-0.02 |
1.49 |
1.04 |
1.18 |
1.71 |
-0.01 |
|
B1 comparison |
|
SRES Regions |
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
Downscaled
Projection A1/B1 POP Data (in persons) |
|
|
OECD90 |
806610969 |
851398966 |
888027602 |
920310710 |
948808602 |
968414087 |
974654972 |
981459319 |
988713299 |
1000491661 |
1011818000 |
1015260420 |
ASIA |
2807031703 |
3260398000 |
3619833700 |
3936089297 |
4147406111 |
4238300605 |
4219310232 |
4084117228 |
3866642275 |
3588667059 |
3258134180 |
2881701986 |
REF |
411791162 |
418707700 |
427163520 |
433378144 |
434860169 |
432834074 |
422733126 |
408524068 |
392058371 |
374370349 |
357458767 |
338743089 |
ALM |
1256483519 |
1586164208 |
1951817724 |
2325800137 |
2650684471 |
2890392985 |
3085481027 |
3191534280 |
3214710310 |
3161282395 |
3029543589 |
2819782489 |
TOTAL |
5281917353 |
6116668874 |
6886842547 |
7615578288 |
8181759353 |
8529941752 |
8702179357 |
8665634895 |
8462124255 |
8124811464 |
7656954537 |
7055487984 |
SRES
B1-IMAGE Marker Scenario POP Data(in millions) |
|
|
OECD90 |
799 |
849 |
890 |
932 |
965 |
990 |
1001 |
1005 |
1009 |
1020 |
1029 |
1032 |
ASIA |
2781 |
3246 |
3609 |
3929 |
4142 |
4235 |
4220 |
4088 |
3871 |
3594 |
3262 |
2886 |
REF |
412 |
429 |
437 |
443 |
445 |
443 |
432 |
419 |
401 |
384 |
365 |
347 |
ALM |
1287 |
1597 |
1954 |
2315 |
2643 |
2879 |
3055 |
3159 |
3202 |
3145 |
3006 |
2783 |
World |
5280 |
6122 |
6892 |
7618 |
8196 |
8547 |
8708 |
8671 |
8484 |
8142 |
7663 |
7047 |
% Difference |
|
|
OECD90 |
0.95 |
0.28 |
-0.22 |
-1.25 |
-1.68 |
-2.18 |
-2.63 |
-2.34 |
-2.01 |
-1.91 |
-1.67 |
-1.62 |
ASIA |
0.94 |
0.44 |
0.30 |
0.18 |
0.13 |
0.08 |
-0.02 |
-0.09 |
-0.11 |
-0.15 |
-0.12 |
-0.15 |
REF |
-0.05 |
-2.40 |
-2.25 |
-2.17 |
-2.28 |
-2.29 |
-2.15 |
-2.50 |
-2.23 |
-2.51 |
-2.07 |
-2.38 |
ALM |
-2.37 |
-0.68 |
-0.11 |
0.47 |
0.29 |
0.40 |
1.00 |
1.03 |
0.40 |
0.52 |
0.78 |
1.32 |
TOTAL |
0.04 |
-0.09 |
-0.07 |
-0.03 |
-0.17 |
-0.20 |
-0.07 |
-0.06 |
-0.26 |
-0.21 |
-0.08 |
0.12 |
Note:
Cyprus and Turkey are listed in the region of Middle East with IMAGE model
which was used for B1 marker scenario. |
|
|
A2 comparison |
|
SRES Regions |
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
Downscaled
Projection A2 POP Data (in persons) |
|
|
OECD90 |
863453974 |
923245398 |
981664036 |
1029930599 |
1075838181 |
1116917530 |
1151502367 |
1193408910 |
1249709120 |
1319583071 |
1402454114 |
1496393669 |
ASIA |
2807031703 |
3295410000 |
3802572400 |
4307752101 |
4815827755 |
5313943230 |
5763455913 |
6188103412 |
6575064532 |
6897184124 |
7144815063 |
7339360513 |
REF |
411791162 |
421396000 |
439888400 |
455138796 |
472264579 |
494995451 |
518529979 |
548746001 |
584191109 |
622774682 |
663455049 |
705942444 |
ALM |
1199640513 |
1529987925 |
1942914657 |
2397763727 |
2882120080 |
3372474710 |
3861416569 |
4321455074 |
4731242120 |
5063356215 |
5313477600 |
5524837053 |
TOTAL |
5281917353 |
6170039323 |
7167039493 |
8190585223 |
9246050595 |
1.0298E+10 |
1.1295E+10 |
1.2252E+10 |
1.314E+10 |
1.3903E+10 |
1.4524E+10 |
1.5067E+10 |
SRES
A2-ASF Marker Scenario POP Data (in millions) |
|
|
OECD90 |
851 |
923 |
975 |
1027 |
1072 |
1131 |
1151 |
1202 |
1228 |
1323 |
1451 |
1496 |
ASIA |
2791 |
3295 |
3801 |
4308 |
4779 |
5500 |
5764 |
6137 |
6333 |
6858 |
7214 |
7340 |
REF |
418 |
421 |
438 |
454 |
473 |
507 |
519 |
551 |
568 |
622 |
684 |
706 |
ALM |
1222 |
1530 |
1974 |
2417 |
2846 |
3578 |
3862 |
4250 |
4458 |
5025 |
5394 |
5526 |
World |
5282 |
6170 |
7188 |
8206 |
9170 |
10715 |
11296 |
12139 |
12587 |
13828 |
14743 |
15068 |
% Difference |
|
|
OECD90 |
1.46 |
0.03 |
0.68 |
0.29 |
0.36 |
-1.25 |
0.04 |
-0.71 |
1.77 |
-0.26 |
-3.35 |
0.03 |
ASIA |
0.57 |
0.01 |
0.04 |
-0.01 |
0.77 |
-3.38 |
-0.01 |
0.83 |
3.82 |
0.57 |
-0.96 |
-0.01 |
REF |
-1.49 |
0.09 |
0.43 |
0.25 |
-0.16 |
-2.37 |
-0.09 |
-0.41 |
2.85 |
0.12 |
-3.00 |
-0.01 |
ALM |
-1.83 |
0.00 |
-1.57 |
-0.80 |
1.27 |
-5.74 |
-0.02 |
1.68 |
6.13 |
0.76 |
-1.49 |
-0.02 |
TOTAL |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-0.29 |
-0.19 |
0.83 |
-3.89 |
-0.01 |
0.93 |
4.40 |
0.54 |
-1.48 |
-0.01 |
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