Thematic Guide to Integrated Assessment Modeling

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ABSTRACT

ORNL/CDIC-16
CMP-002/PC

THE IEA/ORAU LONG-TERM GLOBAL ENERGY-CO2 MODEL:
PERSONAL COMPUTER VERSION A84PC

 

Contributed by

J.A. Edmonds and J.M. Reilly
Institute for Energy Analysis
Oak Ridge Associated Universities
Washington, DC 20036

Environmental Sciences Division
Publication No. 2797

Date of Issue: December 1986

Prepared by
T.A. Boden and S.E. Reynolds
Carbon Dioxide Information Center
Environmental Sciences Division
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831
operated by
Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc.
for the
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
under contract No. DE-AC05-84OR21400

1. MODEL PACKAGE NAME

IEA/ORAU Long-Term Global Energy-CO2 Model:
Personal Computer Version A84PC

2. CONTRIBUTORS

J.A. Edmonds* and J.M. Reilly*
Institute for Energy Analysis
Oak Ridge Associated Universities
Washington, DC 20036

3. BACKGROUND HISTORY

The IEA/ORAU Long-Term Global Energy-CO2 Model was developed for and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Energy Research, Carbon Dioxide Research Division. The model, which was developed by J.A. Edmonds and J.M. Reilly, was originally adapted for a main frame environment, with the computer code written in FORTRAN IV. The Carbon Dioxide Information Center (CDIC) packaged the main frame version in 1984 (Edmonds and Reilly, 1984). In the summer of 1985, the mainframe version was modified for use on an IBM personal computer (PC) as part of a joint venture between the Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge Associated Universities (IEA/ORAU) and CDIC. This PC version was presented for the first time at a conference in Villach, Austria, on October 10, 1985. Because of the positive response received at the conference and the large number of requests for the PC version, a user's guide was written (Edmonds 1986) and the PC version was packaged. At present, both the mainframe version and the PC version of the model are available from CDIC. Differences between the mainframe version and the PC version are discussed in the user's guide and the pertinent literature provided in this document.

4. FEATURES OF THE PC VERSION

The PC version of the IEA/ORAU Long-Term Global Energy-CO2 Model offers the user several new features that the main frame version did not provide. It enables the user to modify interactively a total of 39 different major assumptions from 12 categories (e.g., population, labor productivity, and synthetic fuel costs) through the use of an internal data editor. As in the main frame version, modifications to the data, source code, or other assumptions can still be made with any text editor. The internal data editor provides a way to temporarily change assumptions and to identify default values of the model. The PC version also provides the interactive capability of displaying graphical or tabular results on a graphics monitor and printing listings of the results. Another feature is the ease with which the model is executed. Only three commands are needed to execute the model after preparation and installation on the user's PC:

• RUNMODEL -This command initiates the model run. All subsequent procedures are directed by a menu-driven interactive set of commands.
• VIEWRUN -This command initiates an interactive graphical display program. Output can be displayed in either tabular or graphical form.
• PRINTRUN -This command sends tabular output to the printer. All tables available in VIEWRUN are printed. Graphs cannot be printed.

This package includes the user's guide (Edmonds 1986), pertinent background literature, and three floppy diskettes containing the source codes and files needed to execute the model. The PC version of the model can be obtained in two forms: (1) ready-to-run (executive load module) and (2) uncompiled FORTRAN code.

5. MINIMUM COMPUTER HARDWARE REQUIRED TO RUN THE MODEL

(1) PC with a minimum of 520K memory
(2) Two floppy disk drives

For graphics:

(3) Monochrome or color graphics monitor
(4) Graphics adapter

Recommended hardware:

(1) PC with a minimum of 520K memory
(2) One floppy disk drive and one hard disk drive
(3) Math co-processor
(4) Enhanced graphics display monitor
(5) Enhanced graphics adapter

The system on which the PC version was developed was an IBM XT with a math co-processor and an enhanced graphics adapter.

6. MINIMUM SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS

(1) IBM DOS 3.0 or a more recent version

7. TYPICAL RUNNING TIME

Running times will vary according to the PC environment and the number of modifications to the input assumptions that are made. For the basic model, running times can vary from 30 seconds to greater than 30 minutes. For cases where numerous modifications have been made, the running time may exceed 1 hour. As long as the message "The Program is Running" appears on the screen, the model is being executed, and the user should not be concerned that the model has failed.

8. SCOPE OF THE MODEL

The IEA/ORAU Long-Term Global Energy-CO2 Model is a mathematical model which integrates economic, demographic, technological, and geological factors to make long-term projections about global energy and CO2 emissions. The model can make projections through the year 2100, with the benchmark years being 2000, 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100. The data base provided contains median values for key variables and was developed as part of a study of the uncertainty associated with future CO2 emissions (Edmonds, Reilly, Gardner, and Brenkert 1985). The model divides the world into nine global regions: 1) the United States, 2) Western Europe and Canada, 3) Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, 4) USSR and Eastern Europe, 5) China and other Asian Centrally Planned Economies, 6) Mideast, 7) Africa, 8) Latin America, and 9) Southeast Asia, and consists primarily of four parts (1) demand, (2) supply, (3) energy balance, and (4) CO2 emissions.

The model computes energy demand for each of six major sources of energy for each of the nine regions. The six major energy sources are: (1) oil, (2) gas, (3) solids (e.g., coal, and biomass), (4) resource-constrained renewables (i.e., hydroelectric power), (5) nuclear, and (6) solar. Energy demand is a function of the population, labor productivity, economic activity, technological change, energy prices, and energy taxes and tariffs in each of the nine global regions.

Energy supply is disaggregated into two categories, renewable and non renewable, and is dependent upon resource constraints, behavioral assumptions, and energy prices for the various regions.

The energy balance module is a set of rules for choosing energy prices, which, on successive attempts, brings global energy supply and demand nearer a system wide balance. Successive energy prices are chosen until energy markets balance within prespecified bounds.

The CO2 emissions component of the model applies appropriate carbon coefficients to the points in the energy flow where carbon is released after an energy balance has been reached. Carbon releases are associated with the consumption of coal, oil, and gas. The carbon coefficients, expressed in teragrams per exajoules, used in the model for liquids, gases, solids, and carbonate rock mining are 19.2, 13.7, 23.8, and 27.9, respectively.

Further details about the model are provided in the references at the back of this document.

9. METHOD OF SOLUTION

The computer program is controlled by the main program, which calls subroutines to perform major tasks and subtasks. The supply and demand modules determine the supply and demand estimates for each of the six major energy sources for each of the nine separate regions. If energy supply and demand match when summed across all trading regions in each group for each energy source, then the global energy system balances. Such a result is unlikely at any arbitrary setting of energy prices. The energy balance component of the model contains a set of rules for choosing energy prices that, on successive iterations, brings supply and demand nearer a system wide balance. Successive energy prices are chosen until energy markets balance within prespecified bounds. After the system balances, CO2 emissions are calculated for regions where oil, gas, and coal are consumed.

10. RESTRICTIONS OR LIMITATIONS

The data set provided with the computer code was developed as part of a study of the uncertainty associated with future CO2 emissions. No attempt was made to ensure that the regionally disaggregated pattern of energy supply was accurate. As a consequence, numerous anomalous regional disaggregates appear, and the user should therefore be cautious in using regionally disaggregated results, particularly in the area of energy supply. One minor discrepancy exists in the way the output is listed for energy demand. In the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) regions, energy consumption is broken into three end-use sectors: (1) residential/commercial, (2) industrial, and (3) transport whereas in the remaining six regions, final energy consumption is grouped into a single aggregate sector.

In some cases where several of the default values are changed to either extremely high or extremely low values, the model will be unable to attain an equilibrium and consequently will not produce any results. A shortcoming of the PRINTRUN command is that it prints the tables or graphs that the model has created but does not provide a listing of the default values or changed values that have been used to obtain the results. To obtain a listing of these values, the user must print the assumption screen or manually record the values before running the model. A screen listing can be obtained by pressing [Shift] [PrtSc]. For users with Professional Graphics Display monitors, occasionally when the graph option of VIEWRUN is in use, the message " *ERROR* unable to open device*" will appear. This is the result of a problem with the IBM Virtual Device Interface, which seems to occur at random and has only been encountered with the Professional Graphics Display monitors. If this happens, type VIEWRUN and try the graph option again.

11. REFERENCES

Included in the package:

Edmonds, J.A. 1986. User's guide to the IEA/ORAU Long-Term Global Energy Economic Model with Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Personal Computer Version A84PC. Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Washington, D.C.

Edmonds, J.A., and J.M. Reilly. 1982. An introduction to the use of the IEA/ORAU Long-Term, Global, Energy Model. Institute for Energy Analysis Working Paper, Contribution No. 82-9. Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Washington, D.C.

Edmonds, J.A., and J.M. Reilly. 1983. A long-term global energy-economic model of carbon dioxide release from fossil fuel use. Energy Economics 5(2): 74-88.

Background information:

Edmonds, J.A. 1983. The Long-Term Global Energy-CO2 Model: Software description, Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Washington, D.C.

Edmonds, J.A., J.M. Reilly, J.R. Trabalka, and D.E. Reichle. 1983. An analysis of possible future atmospheric retention of fossil fuel CO2, TR013 DOE/OR/21400-1. U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C.

Edmonds, J.A., and J.M. Reilly. 1983. Global energy productions and use to the year 2050, Energy (Oxford) 8(6): 419-432.

Edmonds, J.A., and J.M. Reilly. 1984. The IEA/ORAU Long-Term Global-CO2 Model. CMP-002. Carbon Dioxide Information Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

Edmonds, J., J. Reilly, R. Gardner, and A. Brenkert. 1985. Uncertainty in carbon emissions, 1975-2075. Report prepared for and submitted to the U. S. Department of Energy. Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Washington, D.C.

Wahl, D., and J.A. Edmonds. 1983. A User's guide for the IEA/ORAU Long-Term Energy-CO2 Model (Version V.11.22.82.B). Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge Associate Universities, Washington, D.C.

12. KEYWORDS

ENERGY ANALYSIS, ENERGY BALANCE, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ENERGY DEMAND, ENERGY ECONOMICS, ENERGY SCENARIOS, FORECASTING, GLOBAL MODEL, REGIONAL ANALYSIS.

13. HOW TO OBTAIN THE PACKAGE

The package may be requested from

Carbon Dioxide Information Center
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6050
Telephone: (615) 574-0390
FTS 624-0390

14. COMPUTER MODEL PACKAGE PREPARED BY:

Thomas A. Boden - package coordination
Steven E. Reynolds - computer programming and graphics

It should be noted that each computer model package (CMP) and numeric data package (NDP) assembled by CDIC is subjected to a process for ensuring the quality of the model or the data. This process includes reviews by the contributors of the data to ensure that, in compiling the data or model, CDIC does not misrepresent or inaccurately describe the model or data. Neither NDPs or CMPs are distributed by CDIC without the written consent of the contributors.

* Jae Edmonds and John Reilly are presently with Pacific Northwest Laboratories, 2030 M St. NW, Washington, DC 20036

Sources

Edmonds, J. and J. Reilly. 1986. The IEA/ORAU Long-Term Global Energy-C02 Model: Personal Computer Version A84PC. Washington, D.C.: Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge Associated Universities.

 

The next page is Chapter 1-Introduction.

 

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Suggested Citation

Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). 1995. Thematic Guide to Integrated Assessment Modeling of Climate Change [online]. University Center, Mich.
CIESIN URL: http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGHP.html

 

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