Thematic Guide to Integrated Assessment Modeling

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We also know that experts can be systematically overconfident about their ability to make predictions (Henrion and Fischhoff, 1986; Lichtenstein et al., 1982)

... At the other extreme, there are some who argue against IA on the grounds that the entire approach was discredited in the experience with World Systems Models. This position does not distinguish the potential utility of World System Models from the claims of the models, and glosses over the differences between World System Models and IA.

... One of us was present at such a meeting in June 1994.

... Lively debates took place on the Internet ecological economics mailing list, including a formal protest endorsed by hundreds of scientists and researchers.

... Ayres (1993) provides a good example of the inherent limitations of classification schemes.

... The bricks are not free of value either, but have usually been subjected to more critical peer review in the discipline from which they were taken.

... The example of doubled CO2 damages equal to 1-2% of GDP comes to mind.

... One could argue that in the assessment of damages due to doubled CO2 discussed in section 4, only a result in the ballpark of 1-2% of GDP is valuable as far as the IA community is concerned. A 1-2% GDP loss does not suggest a clear way forward as far as abatement and mitigation are concerned; it also does not make climate change damage a non-issue either. It could also be argued that the long standing result for climate sensitivity of 3° C fulfils a similar purpose for the climate modeling community.

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Sources

Parson, E.A. and K. Fisher-Vanden, Searching for Integrated Assessment: A Preliminary Investigation of Methods, Models, and Projects in the Integrated Assessment of Global Climatic Change. Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). University Center, Mich. 1995.

Suggested Citation

Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). 1995. Thematic Guide to Integrated Assessment Modeling of Climate Change [online]. University Center, Mich.
CIESIN URL: http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGHP.html