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Thematic Guide to Integrated Assessment Modeling




As described in section 4, there is a tendency for certain ``reasonable results'' to become established within the integrated assessment community[FN]. There are two problems with such established results. The first is that it anchors the community not only on the result, but also on the assumptions that led to that result, often without those assumptions ever being made explicit or questioned. A related problem is that there is then a tendency for work to be judged not only on its internal adequacy (as it should), but on the agreement between the results of that work and other ``established'', reasonable results.

Motivational biases could lead to situations where the adequacy of an analysis depends on its value to the community. The location of anchored results may be biased by considerations of ``value''. That is, what is viewed as being ``adequate'' internally may be partly motivated by concerns about what is viewed as ``valuable'' externally[FN]. Anchoring is a serious problem and requires constant vigilance and critical appraisal. If the existence of anchoring is more widely recognized, then perhaps, it will lead to a greater diversity of analyses.







Parson, E.A. and K. Fisher-Vanden, Searching for Integrated Assessment: A Preliminary Investigation of Methods, Models, and Projects in the Integrated Assessment of Global Climatic Change. Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). University Center, Mich. 1995.


Suggested Citation

Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). 1995. Thematic Guide to Integrated Assessment Modeling of Climate Change [online]. University Center, Mich.



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