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Scenario analysis of global warming using the Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)

Yuzuru Matsuoka
Faculty of Engineering, Kyoto University, Yosidahonmachi Sakyo-ku Kyoto 606-01, Japan

Mikiko Kainuma and Tsuneyuki Morita
Global Environmental Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba 305, Japan

The Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is a large-scale model for scenario analyses of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the impacts of global warming in the Asian Pacific region. The AIM comprises two main models - the AlM/emission model for predicting GHG emissions and the AlM/impact model for estimating the impacts of global warming -which are linked by the global GHG cycle and the climate change models. This paper categorizes the scenarios that have been written so far in relation to global warming, and then, given fixed inputs, simulates the effects of global warming taking into account various uncertainties. Several recent outcomes from the AlM/impact model are then described. Assuming climate change scenarios deduced from AlM/emission and GCM experiments, primary impacts on water resources and natural vegetation are assessed.

Keywords: Global climate change; Integrated assessment; Regional emissions and impacts



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