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Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030, v1 (
2000 – 2030)
- To assess likely future areas of urban expansion up to the year 2030.
- The Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030 presents spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land cover change from 2000 to 2030 at a 2.5 arc-minute resolution. For each grid cell that is non-urban in 2000, a Monte-Carlo model assigned a probability of becoming urban by the year 2030. The authors first extracted urban extent circa 2000 from the NASA MODIS Land Cover Type Product Version 5, which provides a conservative estimate of global urban land cover. The authors then used population densities from the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) to create the population density driver map. They estimated the amount of new urban land in each United Nations region by 2030 in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on present empirical distribution of regional urban population densities and probability density functions of projected regional population and GDP values for 2030. To facilitate integration with other data products, CIESIN reprojected the data from Goode's Homolosine to Geographic WGS84 projection.
- Recommended Citation(s)*:
Seto, K., B. Güneralp, and L.R. Hutyra. 2016. Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030. Palisades, New York: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). https://doi.org/10.7927/H4Z899CG. Accessed DAY MONTH YEAR.
ENW (EndNote & RefWorks)†
Seto, K., B. Güneralp, and L.R. Hutyra. 2012. Global Forecasts of Urban Expansion to 2030 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Pools. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) 109 (40): 16083-16088. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1211658109.
ENW (EndNote & RefWorks)†
* When authors make use of data they should cite both the data set and the scientific publication, if available. Such a practice gives credit to data set producers and advances principles of transparency and reproducibility. Please visit the data citations page for details. Users who would like to choose to format the citation(s) for this dataset using a myriad of alternate styles can copy the DOI number and paste it into Crosscite's website.
† For EndNote users, please check the Research Note field for issues with importing authors that are organizations when using the ENW file format.
- Available Formats:
- raster, map, map service