The PAGE Model

PAGE (Policy Analysis for the Greenhouse Effect) was developed with European Union support, in a parallel effort to ESCAPE. In contrast with ESCAPE, PAGE focuses on simplicity and ease of use, and allows extensive specification and propagation of uncertainty.

PAGE models the same four world regions as ESCAPE and represents emissions of CO2, CH4, CFCs, and HCFCs from 1990 to 2100. Emission projections are not modeled but are specified by the user. The model then generates emission-reduction costs from a set of regional no-cost emission paths for each gas, and marginal costs and break-points for a piecewise linear abatement cost function.

Emissions drive an atmospheric model that represents atmospheric lives of each gas and resultant time-paths of radiative forcing and global-average temperature. Impacts are assumed to be zero if the time-path of future temperature lies below a specified trapezoidal curve defined by an initial limit on the rate of temperature increase on total temperature change. If the temperature path passes above this region, sector- and region-specific costs are defined proportional to the excess. In all illustrative runs presented so far, though, the parameters of this time-path of "tolerable" temperature change have been fixed at zero so that costly impacts begin with any temperature change.

The richest part of the PAGE model is its treatment of uncertainty. All major parameters on the emissions, atmospheric, and impacts side are represented by triangular probability distributions whose parameters can be set by the user, and uncertainty is propagated throughout the model. No other distribution forms than triangular are available, however (Hope 1992 and Hope, Anderson, and Wenman 1993.

For further information on PAGE and model availability, contact the following:

Environmental Resources Ltd.
ATTN: Paul Wenman
106 Gloucester Place
London W1H 3DB
UNITED KINGDOM.

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Sources

Parson, E.A. and K. Fisher-Vanden, Searching for Integrated Assessment: A Preliminary Investigation of Methods, Models, and Projects in the Integrated Assessment of Global Climatic Change. Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). University Center, Mich. 1995.

Suggested Citation

Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). 1995. Thematic Guide to Integrated Assessment Modeling of Climate Change [online]. University Center, Mich.
CIESIN URL: http://sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGHP.html

Acknowledgement

This work, including access to the data and technical assistance, is provided by CIESIN, with funding from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Contract NAS5-32632 for the Development and Operation of the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC).

Data Errors, Corrections and Disclaimer
CIESIN follows procedures designed to ensure that data disseminated via CIESIN Web site are of reasonable quality. If, despite these procedures, users encounter apparent errors in CIESIN data, they should contact CIESIN User Services at 517/797-2727 or via Internet e-mail at CIESIN.Info@ciesin.org. CIESIN will notify the original data provider of these apparent errors or misstatements and will attempt to correct them in the most efficient manner possible. Neither CIESIN nor NASA verifies or guarantees the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the data provided.

For more information contact CIESIN User Services: e-mail: CIESIN.Info@ciesin.org; Tel: 1-517-797-2727.

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